BPCE L’Observatoire: study on tensions in the housing market and the outlook for 2019-2020

2019, a housing market still boosted by borrowing

In 2019, the French residential real-estate market for pre-existing properties remains extremely active and reached new historical heights at the end of May with 994,000 transactions per year. The new-build housing segment is still enjoying sales at a high level but the slowdown in production is continuing both for individual houses (isolated and grouped construction) and for apartment buildings. This buoyancy in demand can be explained by lower interest rates, longer maturities and more flexible lending criteria, which have returned to their 2007-2008 levels. As a result, household solvency is preserved despite the higher prices it needs to support.

2020, towards a gradual adjustment

In 2020, the number of real-estate transactions for pre-existing properties is expected to decrease slightly compared with 2019. The contraction of the new home market should be more marked and the private rental segment is expected to slow down pending the Government's orientations following the so-called Pinel rental property incentive system. Prices are expected to remain on an upward trend but rising more slowly both in the pre-existing and new-build sectors. Regional disparities are expected to continue to increase related, in particular, to the French Government's residential real-estate strategy.

Overall, by 2020, activities in the real-estate market should not suffer a sudden collapse but a gradual adjustment to levels that nevertheless remain higher than their long-term average.