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Economy: dwindling confidence and rebound in savings and deposits

See the monthly dashboard produced by Groupe BPCE’s Economic Research Department

With the yellow vests crisis in full sway, French household-confidence is eroding, as are consumers’ intentions to make large purchases, despite their purchasing power having increased. This framework is conducive to higher savings and deposits inflow in fourth-quarter 2018.Livret A accounts in good shape. Livret A accounts are showing a €6.2 billion surplus since January and continue to attract higher inflow than in the previous five years, in contrast to other banking products – particularly medium-term products – which were down sharply year-on-year. Total inflow into banking products amounted to €36.1 billion at end-November 2018, down 4% on a year earlier.

Inflow triple the 2017 figure. At end-November, life insurance was doing comfortably better than in the whole of 2017. Inflow reached €23 billion, similar to the total for full-year 2017. Although unit-linked inflow hit record levels in cumulative terms since January, it was nevertheless starting to slow on a year-on-year basis. However, there was confirmation of the recovery in inflow to with-profits products in 2018. Nevertheless, this dynamic performance in life insurance was not just related to higher premiums, but also to a sharp decrease in benefits to historically low levels as a percentage of the portfolio.

  • Economic research