After sharp growth in real-estate projects between November 2020 and February 2021, French people’s intentions reached a peak in May with 22% of adults saying that they wanted to buy a home within the next 12 months; this proportion rose to 39% among 18-34 year-olds and to 41% among households earning more than €5,000 per month. In contrast, however, the November 2021 summary review shows a significant decline in intentions to buy real estate. Even if intentions remain at their peak in densely populated areas and for purchase/resale projects, plans to purchase real estate have sharply declined for the younger people included in the survey, for respondents on low wages but also for the most affluent categories. It is significant that these different profiles – of first-time buyers and investors respectively – share the same view of a market that, in their opinion, is becoming more favorable to sellers and less attractive to buyers owing to the price increases observed in recent months.
Improvement work and energy performance certificates: a drive to transform the market
In contrast, however, intentions to carry out renovation work are showing no signs of abating: 80% of homeowners are planning to carry out work within the next 5 years; 39% are planning to carry out energy-efficiency improvements, and more than 70% have projects to embellish, expand or renovate their properties. In all cases, the propensity to carry out work is inversely correlated to the owner’s age while remaining less sensitive to the household’s financial security or to the density of the urban environment.
The origin of this greater appetite for renovation work may be traced (as far as enhanced energy efficiency is concerned) to a conjunction between the aspirations of the French and strong regulatory pressure. In particular, the reform of the energy performance certificate and the adoption of the French Climate & Resilience Act coming after the Energy & Climate Act, have shifted the measures taken from an ‘obligation to provide information’ to a ‘requirement to act’ in a timeframe of imminent importance to the French considering that penalization will begin as early as 2025 with the prohibition to rent out properties with category G energy performance certificates (6% of primary residences) extended in 2028 to properties included in category F (11% of primary residences). What is more, the fact that renting out property with a category E energy performance certificate will be forbidden in 2034 encourages the French to expect these restrictions to increase indefinitely over time.